The yearly adage “Sell in May and go away” resurfaces once again, but is this applicable for Bitcoin really? For the traditional markets, May is a month of profit-taking, but the record of the so-called king of crypto tells a much more symptomatic story.
As indicated by Eric Crown and backed by data sourced from Coinglass, May never really favoured Bitcoin; it has been a month of both golden gains and brutal bloodbaths. So, let’s dig deep into the historical prices and see whether or not this popular seasonal wisdom holds in the current crazy world of crypto.
Bitcoin’s May Performance: A 50/50 Historical Split
Since 2011, Bitcoin price history has been wonderfully enticing. As Eric Crown puts it, in the past 12 years, Bitcoin has closed May in the green 6 times, thus celebrating a 50% win rate.
However, upon 14 years, the whole thing becomes far more complicated; 7 out of the last 14 Mays delivered quite a bit of downside, demonstrating May’s volatility. This contradictory performance counters the statement that “sell in May” has validity — at least where crypto markets are Concerned.
Market Cycle Traps: May’s Bullish Illusion?
As a matter of fact, out of the 4 major tops in bitcoin-market history, it happened 3 times that May duped buyers expecting a continuance of rally, and then staged a sudden reversal in bull activities.
To give one example:
Then in May 2019, the market saw a strong rebound as Bitcoin climbed out of a previous bear phase.
In May 2017, Bitcoin rallied nearly +50% before entering a period of consolidation.
By May 2021, BTC suffered a sharp -35% drop, marking one of the most painful months of that cycle.
This again would show that May rarely becomes a one-way street—on the other hand, it has been complicated. That makes all the difference for traders and investors looking at long-term.”
Coinglass Data: +7.9% Average Return in May
The Coinglass perspective gives us yet another angle to think about. Bitcoin has generated an average return of +7.9% for 12 years in May — outperforming most average returns in other months.
This indicates that while risks need to be taken into consideration, the month has given especially robust returns, at least in the mid-stage of bull markets. But, high volatility does come to mind. For every rally, there has been a counterpart crash.
Investor Sentiment: Is the “Sell in May” Strategy Still Valid in 2025?
After considering historical data for and against it, investors are on a different road: “Should I sell this May?”
The truth is, there is not one answer to fit all. Seasonality counts, but macro trends, liquidity flows, inflows of ETFs, and halving cycles also shape Bitcoin’s path.
If May is to be a fakeout or just a period of consolidation prior to the next leg up, exiting too soon could mean missing out on the real gain, just like in previous cycles.
Final Thoughts: May Matters, But Context Is King
The proverb sounds good: “Sell in May and go away,” but Bitcoin says nothing is that simple. May bears almost equal gains and losses, with an average return of 7.9%, so any such gain must be seen on the rise; however, the potential for bull traps definitely looms.
Will it be history repeating itself this May? The data says one needs to be a bit cautious but not panicked. As always, awareness and flexibility will serve you best in crypto.